How to Know If Your Welcome Offer Is Helping or Hurting Your Brand
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Not All Discounts Drive Growth. Some Just Burn Cash.
If you're running a 10% or 15% welcome offer without calculating its downstream impact, you're not incentivizing—you're guessing.
Sticky Digital’s Welcome Offer ROI Calculator helps you fix that by showing you exactly how your incentive affects profit, LTV, and repeat purchase rate.
What Is the Welcome Offer ROI Calculator?
This is a free, interactive Excel calculator designed to help Shopify-based brands evaluate their first-purchase incentive strategy.
Download the Welcome Offer ROI Calculator (Excel)
It models:
- Impact of % discounts vs. free gifts on first-order margins
- Retention curves and breakeven points
- LTV needed to justify acquisition costs
- Profitability comparisons across customer segments
Who It's For
- Lifecycle marketers optimizing welcome flows
- Shopify founders questioning whether their discount strategy is sustainable
- DTC teams focused on second purchase rate and margin
How to Use the Calculator
Step 1: Plug In Your AOV and Gross Margin
Start with the numbers you know: average order value, cost of goods, and your standard welcome discount. The calculator immediately shows your net margin after discount.
Step 2: Add Your Retention Rate
Estimate (or pull from Klaviyo or GA4) your repeat purchase rate. The calculator will model the future value of that customer—and whether your current discount will ever pay for itself.
Step 3: Compare Offers
Duplicate the sheet and run different scenarios. Compare a 15% off code vs. a $5 gift vs. no incentive. Choose the one with the highest sustainable ROI.
Why It Matters
Because discounts are not neutral. They either:
- Accelerate LTV
- Destroy your margins
- Train customers to wait for a deal
This calculator helps you identify which of those is happening—and how to adjust.
Layer It Into Your Retention Strategy
Not seeing second purchase lift? Pair this calculator with our 30-Day Post-Purchase Journey Calendar to boost repeat revenue after the first order.
Download the Calculator
Get the Welcome Offer ROI Calculator
Work With Sticky Digital
Need help fixing your welcome flows or creating a smarter incentive strategy? Request a free retention audit and let our team help you build a conversion system that actually makes money.